Last week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer held a vote on changing the rules of the filibuster, setting up Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema for high-profile breaks with the Democratic Party. It was reminiscent of Senators John McCain, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins all voting against the repeal of the Affordable Care Act in 2017, after the GOP campaigned on its repeal for four election cycles. Of course, the substance of the legislation is very different, but for members of both parties, it was a significant betrayal.

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates increasingly running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether President Biden’s dismissal of the polls is a “good or bad use of polling.”

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.