Multiple polls point to Trump’s vulnerability of being toppled as GOP standard-bearer in 2024



Dipping into the crosstabs, among Republicans who said they voted for Trump in the 2020 election, 57% in the Jan. 2021 poll identified themselves as “Trump supporters” versus only 43% in Jan. 2022 identifying that way.

Here are the Jan. 2021 crosstabs:


Here are the Jan. 2022 crosstabs:


The slippage of Trump’s grip on the GOP base also surfaced in a recent NBC News poll in which the number of conservatives who identified as supporters of Trump rather than supporters of the GOP hit an all-time low of 36%.

NBC had asked the question some two dozen times over the course of three years. In Jan. 2019, 51% of conservatives said Trump supporter while 38% said Republican Party supporter; in Jan. 2021, it was an even split, 46% Trump/46% GOP; and by Jan. 2022, the dynamic had nearly flipped, with 36% of conservatives choosing Trump, while 56% identified as a supporter of the Republican Party.

A Civiqs tracking poll has similarly found Trump’s favorability rating softening among both Republicans and independents, which has pulled his overall favorability rating down to its lowest point in the poll since he won the 2016 election.

Trump is still the overwhelming favorite of Republican voters to run in 2024, but he no longer appears to be bulletproof. The only Republican who seems to be both narcissistic and opportunistic enough to challenge Trump head-on is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Watch DeSantis closely as he continues to separate himself from Trump, particularly on the issue of COVID-19 and the vaccines.


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