Despite pressure on inflation this year in Vietnam, it will be under control and the National Assembly’s target of 4 per cent is still feasible, experts forecast at a recent seminar on market and pricing in Hanoi. Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance Nguyen Ba Minh predicted the average consumer price index (CPI) in 2022 will rise roughly by 2-3 per cent over the 2021 figure.

Minh said inflation this year will be well controlled as it will be difficult for global raw material prices to significantly rise due to the complicated spread of new variant Omicron, trade wars and political conflicts in the world.

Purchasing power in the domestic market will be still weak because the income of workers has been reduced, as production stagnated during the pandemic.

Despite pressure on inflation this year in Vietnam, it will be under control and the National Assembly’s target of 4 per cent is still feasible, experts said at a seminar on market and pricing. Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance Nguyen Ba Minh predicted the average consumer price index in 2022 will rise by about 2-3 per cent compared to 2021.

Minh forecast gasoline prices to be stable at $65-80 per barrel. If oil price rises sharply, the United States will increase the supply of shale oil, he explained. At that time, the United States will gain the oil market share of OPEC and OPEC+ countries, meaning the latter will then have to increase the supply to cause oil prices to fall again.

Expert Nguyen Duc Do said though the economy is recovering, the output of 2022 will still be below potential. If Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 grows by 6.5 per cent, the government’s target, or even 8-9 per cent as some forecast, the average GDP growth rate in the 2020-22 period is only at 4-5 per cent, much lower than 6 per cent in the 2011-20 period, he explained.

However, experts said controlling inflation in 2022 will not be easy as the index can increase quite high from the beginning of this year, in the wake of the global economic recovery and commodity prices on an upward trend, according to a news agency report.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)