India’s economy stays on track to regain its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy after recent official estimates put the gross domestic product (GDP) expansion at 9.2 per cent this fiscal. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month forecast a 9.5 per cent expansion. Risks stem from an Omicron-led third wave which may upend growth revival across sectors.

The National Statistical Office’s (NSO) first advance estimates show the economy will surpass the pre-COVID level in actual terms, mainly on account of improved performance by farm, mining and manufacturing sectors.

“Real GDP or GDP at constant prices (2011-12) in the year 2021-22 is estimated at ₹147.54 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of ₹135.13 lakh crore, released on May 31, 2021,” NSO said in a statement.

India’s economy stays on track to regain its position as the world fastest-growing major economy after recent official estimates put the gross domestic product expansion at 9.2 per cent this fiscal. The Reserve Bank of India last month forecast a 9.5 per cent expansion. Risks stem from an Omicron-led third wave which may upend growth revival across sectors.

The projection is less than the 9.5 per cent forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and S&P, while Moody’s Investors Service had in recent weeks put India’s growth forecast at 9.3 per cent. Fitch Ratings has projected an 8.7 per cent expansion.

World Bank has been the most conservative, projecting an 8.3 per cent growth rate while OECD put it at 9.7 per cent.

The finance ministry’s Economic Survey in February last year had projected an 11 per cent growth rate for 2021-22.

According to the NSO statement, real gross value added at basic prices is estimated at ₹135.22 lakh crore in 2021-22, as against ₹124.53 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth of 8.6 per cent.

In the current fiscal, the manufacturing sector is likely to see a growth of 12.5 per cent against a contraction of 7.2 per cent a year ago.

The agriculture sector is estimated to see a growth of 3.9 per cent in FY2021-22, higher than the 3.6 per cent expansion recorded in the previous fiscal.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)