India is likely to get the tag of the 3rd largest economy in 2027 (or FY28) based on actual GDP data as on March 2023, a movement of 7 places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked 10th and 2 years earlier than our previous forecast of 2029.

The Indian economy continues to enjoy a period of sustained goldilocks, and there is now a rising consensus that India’s GDP in FY24 first quarter is likely to surpass 8 per cent, thus pushing GDP growth to beyond 6.5 per cent in the fiscal, the State Bank of India said in its ECOWRAP.
India is likely to turn the 3rd largest economy in 2027, it noted.

India should surpass both Japan and Germany in 2027 at the current rate of growth, and India’s share in global GDP will cross 4 per cent by then, it noted.

But for this, India needs to grow by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4 per cent till 2027 in dollar terms, the SBI document noted. This translates into 11.0-11.5 per cent nominal GDP growth per annum (in rupee terms), which is eminently achievable with a 6.5-7 per cent growth rate, it said.

State-wise estimate indicates that at least two Indian states, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, will break the $500 billion mark in 2027 (or FY28) when India achieves the third place in global economy.

The GDP size of major Indian states in 2027 will be more than the size of some Asian and European countries, it said.

A broad-based growth of empowerment will also lift India’s per capita income from current levels and this could also act as a force multiplier for a better tomorrow, it added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)