Global trade to enter a period of slower, sustained growth: UK govt

Global growth is expected to slow progressively till 2050, as maturing emerging markets, slowing population growth and rising uncertainty weigh on growth prospects, according to a report by the UK department for business and trade.

Meanwhile, global trade is expected to break with the exponential growth of recent decades, to enter a period of slower, but sustained growth; complicated by a threatened fragmentation among key markets, the third edition of the department’s ‘Global Trade Outlook’ said.

Emerging markets will claim a growing share of global gross domestic product (GDP), with the most rapid growth centred on South Asia and Africa, but Europe, the US and China will remain key pillars of the global economy.

Global growth is expected to slow progressively till 2050, as maturing emerging markets, slowing population growth and rising uncertainty weigh on growth prospects, a UK business and trade department report said.
Global trade is likely to break with the exponential growth of past decades, to enter a period of slower, sustained growth; complicated by a threatened fragmentation among key markets.

By the end of the projection, most of the largest markets will have reached peak population, as stalling population growth weighs on economic growth in Europe and Asia Pacific, but drives a rapid expansion in Africa.

The United Kingdom is expected to retain its position as the sixth largest economy, even as rapid growth in emerging markets sees the UK’s share of global GDP decline. Services centric global growth and rising high income consumers will play to UK strengths and drive growth.

Europe will remain the world’s largest market, even as emerging market growth and shifting value chains diversify global trade, and offer growth opportunities that significantly exceed slowing overall trade growth, according to the report.

Advanced manufacturing will remain the most traded global sector, while services sectors continue to experience rapid growth; as rising import demand in priority sectors lifts global exports prospects for UK Industrial Strategy firms.

The emergence of over a billion new high income consumers, primarily concentrated in China and South Asia, will offer rich prospects for exporters, as a diversifying global footprint is increasingly important to reach top potential customers.

The United Kingdom is expected to remain a leading trading nation, as exporters benefit from close relationships with some of the world’s fastest-growing markets.

While Europe will remain the largest destination for UK goods, export destinations are expected to diversify, as growth spreads across regions, the report added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)