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In South Africa, the omicron wave generated a very sharp spike, and almost as swiftly went into decline. Other countries, including the U.S., might see a fast respite, but it is far from a sure thing. The U.K., which is running a week or two ahead of the U.S. when it comes to omicron prevalence, isn’t showing any signs of a decline at this point. Other European nations, such as France and Italy, are also seeing cases continue to skyrocket.
Studies currently place the possibility of hospitalization from omicron at somewhere between one-third and one-half that of previous variants. That’s good. So are other indications that those hospitalized for omicron are much less likely to require intubation and long-term use of ventilators due to a much-reduced level of infection in the lungs.
But when dealing with rates of infection like what we’re experiencing in the United States at the moment, none of that comes close to being enough to make in-person schools possible. Teachers and staff don’t have to die to be unable to conduct class; they just have to be sick. And omicron makes people sick.
That includes kids, with COVID-related pediatric hospitalizations soaring. As of Sunday, an average of 672 children were being hospitalized in the U.S, every day, “and the rate is rapidly increasing.”
All it takes is a quick survey across the nation to understand the situation that schools are in.
- Michigan Live: “Staffing shortages force Grand Rapids elementary school to go virtual this week”
- WHAM: “Bus driver shortage forces Brockport, Clyde-Savannah to cancel in-person learning”
- KSDK: “As COVID-19 cases rise, schools in the St. Louis area and Metro East are switching to virtual learning or requiring masks again.”
- WLUK: “Staff shortages may force Green Bay schools to virtual learning”
- WGME: “Bus driver shortage forces MSAD 6 to use remote learning”
- New York Times: “In an abrupt reversal, Atlanta’s public schools start the year remotely.”
- Axios: “COVID-related staffing issues force more Philly schools to go virtual”
Tracking site burbio makes the situation clear. Across the nation, 4,561 schools are currently in “a period of disruption.” That’s a level almost twice that of the worst week in last year’s January surge.
Schools are closing because they have no choice. Too many teachers are already sick. Too many substitute teachers are already sick. Too many bus drivers are already sick. Too many students are already sick. And forcing schools to stay open, even for one more day, will only make things worse.
Right now there are school districts across the nation going to heroic levels in an attempt to find a way to remain open. They’re calling in retired teachers who feel an obligation to the children to put themselves at great risk. They’re relaxing the rules around substitutes, just to get something like a warm (but not too-warm) body in front of classrooms. All of this is making things worse.
It’s not just making things worse in terms of spreading COVID-19, it’s degrading the quality of the education provided. No parent, at any school in the nation, should delude themselves that a day of in-person instruction this week is equivalent to a normal day in class. Schools are clawing to stay above water. Students are right there with them.
The best thing that can be done is to close the schools. Close them definitively. Close them until the levels of COVID-19 return to a level where schools have sufficient staff to conduct in-person instruction. Make it clear that level is not going to come in the next two weeks.
By doing so, plans for remote learning can be executed without worrying about whether tomorrow will be an in-school, or an out-of-school day. Parents can do their best to handle work and kids at home, rather than facing each morning as a surprise. Governments can take actions to provide assistance where possible.
And, far from least of all, health care workers won’t see thousands of students and even more teachers added to the burden already overwhelming hospitals.
Close the schools. Close them now. Close them definitively until at least January 18. Then reopen them in locations where cases have genuinely decreased
Because the schools are going to be closed anyway. Pretending otherwise will hurt everyone involved.
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