Fitch forecasts 2026 growth at 6.4 per cent for India, 5.7 per cent for the Philippines, 4.8 per cent for Indonesia, 4 per cent for Malaysia and 1.9 per cent for Thailand, above the ‘BBB’ median of 2.4 per cent in most cases, adding that foreign-exchange reserves generally exceed the peer median except in Malaysia, while Thailand, Malaysia and India maintain net external creditor positions and stand to benefit from shifting global trade patterns.
Global growth is expected to cool next year, which may soften economic momentum, though the region is likely to continue outperforming many of its peers, Fitch Ratings said in its report titled ‘Asia’s ‘BBB’ Category Sovereigns Compared.’
India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines maintain strong external buffers, with foreign-exchange reserves generally above ‘BBB’ peer medians, as per Fitch.
Growth prospects remain stronger than most similarly rated peers, though governance standards and revenue ratios lag.
Thailand faces slower growth and a negative outlook, while fiscal space has narrowed across group amid debt pressures.
Governance standards and public finance metrics, however, lag those of rating peers, with revenue ratios below the ‘BBB’ median of 25.8 per cent of GDP, limiting fiscal flexibility.
Thailand’s softer outlook partly reflects a slower tourism recovery, even as its external finances remain strong, while public protests in Indonesia and the Philippines, along with coalition dynamics in Thailand, could add to spending pressures, and Thailand’s negative outlook signals heightened downgrade risks if fiscal consolidation falters and debt stabilisation is delayed.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)
