November 28, 2021

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Top-tier Democrat challenging Boebert drops out after Colorado adopts new maps

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Of course, members of Congress don’t have to live in the districts they serve, but redistricting posed even greater problems for Donovan: The old 3rd voted for Donald Trump by a difficult but still surmountable 52-46 margin, while the new 3rd would have given Trump a wider 53-45 win. In addition, while approximately three-quarters of Donovan’s state Senate district was located in the previous iteration of the 3rd, only about half would be now, meaning fewer voters would be familiar with her.

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Donovan didn’t specifically cite any of these issues in explaining her departure, but she did castigate the commission’s maps, saying they “failed to recognize the complexity of rural Colorado and instead divided communities, protected incumbents and ignored Coloradans’ voice.”

Prior to leaving the race, Donovan had raised huge sums thanks to Boebert’s notoriety, showing up at the top of the list every quarter this year and clocking in a total of $1.9 million as of the end of September. After the commission settled on a final map, though, she suspended her fundraising operation, which still has $614,000 in the bank, at the start of this month. That money could be saved for a future campaign, returned to donors, or given to charity.

Several other Democrats remain in the race, including activist Sol Sandoval, veterinarian Debbie Burnett, and state Rep. Donald Valdez, though none have yet capitalized on the burning desire among progressives to oust Boebert in the way Donovan had.

Redistricting

IA Redistricting: Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds signed Iowa’s new congressional and legislative maps into law on Thursday, a week after lawmakers passed them almost unanimously. The congressional plan creates three red-leaning districts and one safely Republican seat, which we outlined previously.

Despite the wide bipartisan support it received, the map could face a legal challenge. Iowa law requires the drawing of “reasonably compact districts” that are “square, rectangular, or hexagonal in shape, and not irregularly shaped.” As you can see here, though, the new districts are anything but regular.

MA Redistricting: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker has signed Massachusetts’ new legislative maps, which passed both chambers last month almost unanimously. A recently introduced congressional map remains pending before lawmakers.

MT Redistricting: The independent tiebreaker on Montana’s bipartisan redistricting commission voted with Republicans on Thursday to advance the GOP’s proposed congressional map. The plan could still be tweaked before the commission’s Nov. 14 deadline to adopt a final map but is likely very close to final.

The map divides the state into an eastern and a western district, with the latter the more competitive of the two. Compared to the GOP’s initial proposals, the western seat (which would be numbered the 1st) is about a point bluer and would have gone for Donald Trump by a 52-45 margin last year, making it about 3 points redder than Democrats’ preferred plans. The 2nd District, by contrast, would have voted 62-35 for Trump. By and large, the map bears the hallmarks of a nonpartisan plan that doesn’t seek to favor one party over the other.

The state’s lone representative, Republican Matt Rosendale, is certain to seek re-election in the 2nd District, which includes his home in Great Falls. We’ll take a look at the field in the 1st District when the commission completes its work.

WI Redistricting: A committee in Wisconsin’s Republican-run state Senate has passed the GOP’s proposed congressional and legislative maps, but they’re certain to be vetoed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers due to their extreme gerrymandering.

Senate

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who recently announced his retirement from the House after Illinois Democrats’ new gerrymandered congressional map left him without a plausible district to run in, now says he’s considering bids for Senate or governor and will “probably” decide by early January.

PA-Sen: Politico reports that wealthy hedge fund manager David McCormick is being recruited to run for Senate by unnamed “prominent Pennsylvania Republicans,” though McCormick himself has yet to comment. McCormick has reportedly told allies he would “invest millions of his own money into the race” should he run, though one problem he currently faces is the fact that he lives in Connecticut.

Governors

CO-Gov: A new poll from Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group on behalf of the liberal group ProgressNow Colorado finds Democratic Gov. Jared Polis with a 52-35 lead over University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, his likely Republican opponent next year. That’s very similar to the 54-34 advantage for Polis that GSG found in June, several months before Ganahl entered the race.

NY-Gov: Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, who previously hadn’t ruled out a bid for governor, now confirms he’s actively considering a campaign and says he’ll decide by the end of the month.

PA-Gov: Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano, a vocal Big Lie proponent who’s been considering a bid for governor, has announced that he’s formed an exploratory committee. He did not, however, offer a timeline for making a decision.

TX-Gov: A new poll from the University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Tribune finds Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke 46-37 in a hypothetical matchup. The survey, which was conducted online by YouGov, is similar to other polling of this potential race. O’Rourke has been considering a bid for some time but has yet to announce a decision.

House

CA-21: Democrat Angel Lara, a former aide to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, has abandoned his bid for California’s 21st Congressional District. While Lara didn’t explain his decision, Democrats recently landed a much more prominent contender in Assemblyman Rudy Salas, whom the party has long tried to recruit to challenge Republican Rep. David Valadao.

FL-20: Following a recount, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leads Dale Holness 23.76-23.75, a difference of just five votes. The recount for the Democratic primary in this heavily black South Florida district comes after Holness led by nine votes the day after the election. Despite the recount, this race is far from over, as Politico’s Gary Fineout wrote Wednesday military and overseas ballots can be received into next week, in addition to any litigation that could arise due to the airtight nature of this contest.  

PA-18: Attorney Steve Irwin, a former head of the Pennsylvania Securities Commission (but, so far as we’re aware, no relation to the Crocodile Hunter), has joined the race for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, which is open because Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle is retiring. The Democratic primary already includes two other notable candidates, law professor Jerry Dickinson and state Rep. Summer Lee. While redistricting has yet to take place, this Pittsburgh-based seat is all but certain to remain safely blue.

TX-35: Democratic state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez, who’s been considering a bid for Texas’ open (and safely blue) 35th Congressional District, has now filed paperwork with the FEC, though he has yet to announce a campaign.



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